Re: upgrade before next scheduled advisory ?
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/13/2019, 11:18 am
Additional recon data, after 10am CDT advisory and discussion was written, indicates a hurricane as well. From the plane up around 5,000 feet (around 840mb level):
10:48:00am EDT:
29.100N 91.250W
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 74 knots (85.2 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 76 knots (87.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 64 knots (73.6 mph) ... noted as suspect
10:48:30am EDT:
29.117N 91.283W
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 71 knots (81.7 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 73 knots (84.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 63 knots (72.5 mph)
Even though the SFMR is noted as suspect, it's where the highest flight level winds were. And it was over water according to Google Earth, about 9 miles offshore. The waters could be shallow and could affect the SFMR, but again, with flight level winds like that, 64 knots seems reasonable.
And the two readings were in a row. SFMR is a 10 second estimate (highest 10 second winds during the period measured, which is almost always 30 seconds in modern high density observations) and the NHC usually goes with it for the 1 minute sustained winds in the advisory if it seems valid, assuming the highest winds might have been missed. When two readings are together and seemingly not over land or really shallow water, to me it gives more confidence in the validity.
Link to that ob at HurricaneCity:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2019&product=hdob&storm=Barry&mission=11&agency=AF&ob=07-13-144600-24-1002.5-74-63
Live recon: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/ |
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