| NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ The biggest impacts from this storm have yet to come for many. While it's made landfall, it's far from over. Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...BARRY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 92.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The Hurricane Warning for the Louisiana coast has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Louisiana coast has been discontinued east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Sabine Pass Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... Intracoastal City to Biloxi Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Barry is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continued tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move across southern and southwestern Louisiana this evening, through central Louisiana tonight, and through northern Louisiana on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are near the coast to the southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A United State Geological Survey station at Cypremort Point, Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph, while the National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 55 mph and a wind gust of 72 mph. In addition, the Acadiana Regional Airport in New Iberia, Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a wind gust of 61 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist through Sunday morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through tonight across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Barry moved inland across Marsh Island and Intracoastal City, Louisiana around 16-18Z. Since then, the system has moved farther inland and weakening has started. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on recent observations from Eugene Island and Cypremort Point. The initial motion is now 330/6. Barry should continue north-northwestward and northward through Louisiana for the next 30-36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should encounter the westerlies and turn north-northeastward before they dissipate. The new NHC forecast track has changed little from the previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models. Barry should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and it is currently forecast to weaken below tropical-storm strength in about 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone should degenerate to a remnant low between 48-72 h and dissipate between 72-96 h. It should be noted that by Sunday morning the strongest winds will likely be occurring well away from the center over the Louisiana coast and the coastal waters. Barry made landfall as a hurricane. However, due to the poor center definition, the exact times and locations will be determined in post-analysis. Key Messages: 1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely across portions of south-central and southeast Louisiana into Mississippi through Sunday as Barry moves farther inland. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley. 3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 30.1N 92.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/0600Z 31.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1800Z 32.2N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/0600Z 33.6N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1800Z 35.0N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1800Z 38.5N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven The NHC discussion says this about landfall: "Barry made landfall as a hurricane. However, due to the poor center definition, the exact times and locations will be determined in post-analysis." I haven't noticed that before for a storm. Usually they give the location, time and wind speed. This one was a little more complicated and they'll need more time for the location and time. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson have blogs on the storm today: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6 |