| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents First forecast doesn't have it becoming a tropical storm and has it as a short-lived depression. See NHC discussion at the bottom of the post for details. NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 78.6W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Northwest Bahamas and the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 78.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected overnight followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should remain just offshore of the east coast of Florida over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant increase in strength is anticipated, and the depression is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Deep convection has increased in association with the small low pressure area we have been monitoring near the Bahamas. Animation of visible satellite images and scatterometer data indicate that a closed low-level circulation formed today, and therefore advisories are being initiated on the system. Conventional surface observations along with the scatterometer measurements indicate that the maximum sustained winds in the cyclone are near 25 kt. The system is in a marginally favorable environment for strengthening, as a special 1800 UTC sounding taken by the National Weather Service Forecast Office here in Miami showed a layer of dry air near the 700 mb level. The global models do not intensify the system, and only a slight increase in strength appears likely. In 36 to 48 hours, the models indicate that this system will be absorbed by a frontal trough near the U.S. east coast. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/11 kt. Over the next day or so, the tropical cyclone should move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge, with the center of the depression expected to remain offshore of the Florida east coast and the southeastern United States until dissipation. The official track forecast follows a small consensus of the only models that were able to follow the center of the depression in the predicted fields. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 25.6N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 27.2N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 30.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 33.7N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |