Re: Pacific: Tropical Depression 6E
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/28/2019, 1:39 pm
For the first one, which is now Erick, the GFS and Euro have taken it south of the islands. But for Seven-E, which is forecast to become Flossie later today, they have been all over the place, especially the GFS. The GFS has had it going south, turning just before it gets to the Big Island or a direct hit on the Big Island. The Euro only goes out 10 days, and due to the forecast speed of the storm in it some of the runs don't yet show what it does around the islands. In some runs it is south and in some runs it also turns before the Big Island. Some runs have it aiming toward the island before 10 days runs out.
Intensity has also varied a lot for when it gets closer to the islands. The GFS has shown a hurricane a lot of the time, but the 6Z and 12Z runs today showed a direct on the Big Island as a tropical storm. Euro has usually had it as a hurricane, but not shown a direct hit.
Still really far out to know how close future Flossie might be, or how strong, but they should be paying attention. At the very least, likely a rip current threat.
They have had multiple threats in prior years that turned out okay most of the time:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hawaii_hurricanes#2010s
That has a list of tropical storms that impacted them too in some way.
Here is a look at Erick's Tropical-Storm-Force Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/?tswind120#contents
It also shows future Flossie and that the storm is forecast to be a bit more north of Erick. |
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Pacific: Tropical Depression 6E -
tvsteve,
7/27/2019, 11:56 am Post A Reply
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