I read the 2pm EDT outlook that talked about the earlier satellite wind data indicating it didn't have a well-defined circulation. I figured they might look at again after the season and upgrade it to something. It did look pretty good on satellite earlier today when I took a look.
I thought the chances were never above 20%, but I see earlier on it was 30% for a couple outlooks. It had kind of flat-lined at 10% as an invest.