| "Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles west of the Azores. 1. A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southeastern Florida continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northern Bahamas and the adjacent western Atlantic waters. The system has changed little in organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend. The low is forecast to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday. After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm activity is limited at this time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Brown" From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 Storm specific models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2019&storm=99&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1 GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 It's a bit early yet, but the GFS has been more bullish on this one than the Euro. The GFS for the past three runs has shown some development on approach to the Lesser Antilles. Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will also have to watch this one. After that, there is even more uncertainty. It's hard to see what the GFS is doing in some of the later part of the runs. One run might have been into Mexico in the Bay of Campeche and another run off the East Coast of U.S. Too early to know about that. Ensemble members from the GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=atl&pkg=lowlocs The previous run showed some ensemble members splitting between those extremes. Plenty of time to watch this one for any contiguous U.S. impact. Puerto Rico though will have to keep a closer eye on it though, along with the Lesser Antilles up first. Satellite Imagery: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al992019 http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/index.htm?zoom=2&lat=14&lon=-53.5 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=13&length=12 From: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/ https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center=13,-50&zoom=5×pan=-6h&products=globalwv.-100,global1kmvis.-100,globalir.-100,globalir-bd.-100,globalir-funk.-100,globalir-ott.-100,globalir-nhc.-100,globalwv-grad.-100,globalvis.-100,globalir-avn.65&timeproduct=globalir-avn http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?basin=atlantic&sname=99L&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-13-24-0-100-1 https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=14535&y=8134 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=99L&product=ir From: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/ https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=99L.INVEST&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc19/ATL/99L.INVEST/ir/geo/1km&PROD=ir |