Re: Dorian at 5am AST Monday: 60mph
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/26/2019, 4:18 pm
I wouldn't give a lot of weight to the models to determine what it might be like for a potential U.S. landfall until after it gets past Hispaniola. How it goes over the island, or if it missed it, would have a different impact on the storm. Plus, with a smaller storm like this, I think waiting for recon into the storm is best as well. I think the models need some data from inside the storm. The first missions into the storm will be Air Force and NOAA missions scheduled to arrive around 7 to 7:30pm EDT tonight at the center.

If you want to look at the GFS though, you might want to look at the ensembles too that show more of a range of possibilities:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=watl&pkg=lowlocs

Here is the current GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850

But take a look at the older GFS which takes a path that isn't over Hispaniola:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-legacy&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850

It's just too early yet for knowing impacts after Hispaniola/Puerto Rico.



Radar data:

Martinique:
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

Trinidad and Tobago:
http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/Radar_Imagery

Composite:
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_Lionel_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_centralAtlantic&Composite=Sabre&ANISP=700&MAPP=1
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Dorian at 5am AST Monday: 60mph - Chris in Tampa, 8/26/2019, 5:37 am
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