| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL062019 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Over the past several hours, the deep convection associated with the cyclone has been developing progressively closer to the center of circulation. And, at the time of this advisory the convection is now covering a portion of the previously exposed low-level center. A late morning scatterometer pass showed winds just over 30 kt over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Since that time, the improved convective pattern has resulted in an increase in the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, indicating an initial intensity of 35 kt. Erin is still undergoing northerly shear, but possibly a little less now than it had been battling for the past couple of days. Little change in environmental conditions are expected over the next 36 hours, so some slight strengthening could occur during that time. After 24 hours, Erin will begin to interact with an approaching mid-latitude trough over the northeastern United States. This should cause the storm to gradually acquire extratropical characteristics, and by 48 hours Erin is expected to have completed extratropical transition. Erin continues to meander, with an initial motion of 270/3 kt. The approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to induce a northward motion of Erin tonight and then accelerate the storm to the northeast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the official forecast is close to the previous one, and near the corrected consensus HCCA. On this track, Erin will remain well offshore of the United States coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 31.9N 72.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 33.1N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 36.0N 71.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 39.4N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 43.7N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 72.1W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 72.1 West. Erin is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is expected to begin moving northward tonight and northeastward Wednesday and Wednesday night with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, but then it should begin to transition to an extratropical cyclone Thursday through Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch |