Blog post from Bob Henson and Jeff Masters tonight:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dorian-Slams-Virgin-Islands-Likely-Approach-Florida-Major-Hurricane
Video update from Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqRyDuqFKB8
Models
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850
Older version of the GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-legacy®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850
Storm specific models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2019&storm=05&display=google_map&latestrun=1
GFS Ensemble members:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs
HWRF:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p®ion=05L&pkg=mslp_wind
Radar:
Long range (248 nautical miles):
http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
- Complete loop of the storm while on Puerto Rico's radar. (however many frames that ends up) Can't control loop.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?overlay=11101111&loop=yes&rid=jua&product=N0Z
- 10 frames
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/pr/san-juan/jua
- You can select long range once on the page from the menu. (up to 10 frames, 12 if you change the number of frames in the link when viewing the "Save Image" link) Usually you can zoom in on the radar imagery, but I have issues lately trying that.
Short range only (124 nautical miles):
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JUA-N0Q-0-12
- Up to 200 frames
Satellite:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL052019
Or when that jumps around, use Puerto Rico: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=pr&band=13&length=12
From: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al052019
Model products on that site: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm_model_data.asp?storm_identifier=al052019
http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/index.htm?zoom=1&lat=20&lon=-68
From: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center=20,-68&zoom=6×pan=-6h&products=globalwv.-100,global1kmvis.-100,globalir.-100,globalir-bd.-100,globalir-funk.-100,globalir-ott.-100,globalir-nhc.-100,globalwv-grad.-100,globalvis.-100,globalir-avn.65&timeproduct=globalir-avn
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?basin=atlantic&sname=05L&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
From: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Antilles-13-24-0-100-1
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=12019&y=6467
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir
From: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=05L.DORIAN&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc19/ATL/05L.DORIAN/ir/geo/1km&PROD=ir
From: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
Mesoscale floater 2 (which it is currently on, meaning one minute imagery):
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_index.php
Then select which one it is out of usually the top two listed.
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND16.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND15.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND14.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-B13-CYAN.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND13-GRAD.90,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND13.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND12.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND11.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND10.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND09-VAPR.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND09.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND08.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND07-FIRE.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND07.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND06.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND05.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND04.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND03.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND02.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND01.-100¢er=20,-68&zoom=6&basemap=bw&labels=line&view=leaflet
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-13-24-0-100-1
As of posting, until you loop the imagery the map under the satellite imagery is wrong.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/sportPublishData.pl?dataset=goeseastabimesoscale2&product=10p35um
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso2&product=ir
From: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/#meso
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=680.71875&y=872.75
SHIPS Intensity Text Output as of 8pm EDT Wednesday:
ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST
IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE
DORIAN AL052019 08/29/19 00 UTC
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 84 88 94 98 99 101 99 101 98 95
V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 84 88 94 98 99 101 99 101 74 44
V (KT) LGEM 70 76 81 85 88 94 100 105 109 110 110 82 47
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 12 8 9 9 4 6 10 7 7 5 5 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -1 -2 -4 -2 -4 -1 -5 -3 -4 1 -3
SHEAR DIR 222 228 234 200 199 271 275 346 296 316 269 291 248
SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.0
POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 157 157 159 157 155 158 157 159 161 162 167
ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 148 146 146 141 138 141 138 138 138 136 141
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 54 56 56 59 61 68 65 72 68 70
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 18 18 21 22 22
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -29 -36 -37 -36 -41 -31 -34 -5 -18 10 0 32
200 MB DIV 5 16 20 34 40 21 24 12 21 8 42 15 54
700-850 TADV 5 8 6 4 0 2 4 -3 1 0 0 -1 1
LAND (KM) 84 183 282 334 394 552 635 627 407 221 68 -35 -79
LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.0 24.7 25.7 26.4 27.3 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.5
LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.5 67.3 67.9 68.5 70.0 72.0 73.8 76.0 78.0 79.7 80.9 81.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 8 7 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 70 82 84 62 45 55 39 59 56 53 55 39 11
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 6. 10. 10. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 28. 29. 31. 29. 31. 28. 25.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.2 65.7
2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 00 UTC
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 5.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.45 2.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 5.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 3.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 2.2
D200 (107s-1) : 23.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 466.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.45 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 34.4% 47.2% 37.0% 33.4% 26.9% 31.7% 27.4% 21.3%
Logistic: 11.4% 38.2% 29.4% 26.2% 12.9% 32.7% 28.2% 31.7%
Bayesian: 4.0% 22.1% 7.6% 1.1% 0.5% 3.4% 11.2% 0.4%
Consensus: 16.6% 35.8% 24.7% 20.2% 13.4% 22.6% 22.3% 17.8%
DTOPS: 24.0% 25.0% 15.0% 11.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/2019 00 UTC
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 11( 21) 16( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 1( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 80 84 88 94 98 99 101 99 101 74 44
18HR AGO 70 69 74 78 82 88 92 93 95 93 95 68 38
12HR AGO 70 67 66 70 74 80 84 85 87 85 87 60 30
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 70 74 75 77 75 77 50 20
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
From bottom of this folder: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
Buoy data:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Ship and buoy data within 250 nautical miles of storm: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at5
Storm surge maps from the Weather Underground:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_images.asp
These are not storm specific, they are static images. Read the information on the page and then you can select the region you want.
Eventually, tidal data:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Dorian.html
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