Just one run
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/30/2019, 3:48 pm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850

It can just as easily switch again. And again. All of the southeast needs to be watching. With that run, you can add the entirety of the U.S. East Coast and Canada, with Canada being where that run made landfall.

This might make some people that weren't paying as much attention before to start paying more attention, but people in Florida shouldn't be breathing a sigh of relief.

From the HurricaneCity model system, the Euro model (ECMO):





Those images do not update. They are the Friday 12Z run of the Euro.

That is one heck of a turn people couldn't count on. What I really hate about this uncertainty of any kind of angle that sort of matches the coastline, whether it makes landfall or not in the SE, is the massive amount of coastline that might need to be evacuated. My fear is that if such a wide scale evacuation was needed, a lot of people might not evacuate. And to be clear, in a situation where the storm might parallel the coast, making landfall or not, you would need to absolutely have people evacuate all along it. People would need to be evacuated ahead of it, not at the last minute, with people waiting to see if it was going to be closer to them.

You can't count on the storm to not turn a few dozen miles late.
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Latest Euro Model has it not making landfall in Florida - tjhooker, 8/30/2019, 3:06 pm
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