Both the 1:30am EDT Friday NOAA G-IV mission, and the 1:30pm EDT Friday G-IV mission, which were to leave from Lakeland, Florida, didn't occur. There was a mechanical issue:
https://www.wfla.com/news/noaa-hurricane-hunters-analyze-dorian/
I saw elsewhere mention about the NOAA G-IV (NOAA9 or NOAA49) flying to Savannah, Georgia. They left at 2:34am EDT Friday to go to Savannah. They got back at 9:11pm EDT Friday to Lakeland.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49
That is some really important data for the models. (the ones that use the data, which I know the GFS does, not sure about others) That data was not in the models on Friday. I would like to know how the models are once G-IV data is in it again. The G-IV samples at a high altitude around the storm and out ahead of it. They drop dropsondes that get fed into the models. It's really important data.
The G-IV mission is scheduled to leave at 1:30am EDT Saturday morning too. Hopefully that happens.
Additionally, there was supposed to be an Air Force buoy drop mission Friday. For whatever reason, it turned around. There was supposed to be an Air Force mission out now into the storm for normal center fixes and patterns through it, but the aircraft that was supposed to be doing that ultimately turned around. I'm not sure what hey were doing. They started flying in a way that some people thought might be picking up the buoy mission. But then it finally left and looks to be headed to its home base in Mississippi.
That means there should be no recon tonight into the storm. So if you wake up and the pressure is still the same, and the winds are still the same, there might be a reason for that. It might be like on Friday when the pressure dropped so suddenly in the 8pm EDT from the 5pm EDT, and the winds came up. There was no recon for the 5pm EDT advisory so the NHC used the older information from the 2pm EDT advisory. Then it seemed like a big change at 8pm EDT, but in reality it was just because it was stronger earlier and there was no recon to measure it.
Upcoming recon (all times on Saturday):
NOAA G-IV upper altitude mission to sample environment around the storm (if the mechanical issue is resolved):
FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49
A. 31/1200Z
B. NOAA9 2405A DORIAN
C. 31/0530Z ... Take off at 1:30am EDT from Lakeland, Florida
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
NOAA P-3 into the storm:
FLIGHT SIX - NOAA 42
A. 31/1100Z ... Scheduled to first arrive at the center at 7:00am EDT
B. NOAA2 2505A DORIAN
C. 31/0900Z ... Take off at 5:00am EDT
D. 26.2N 73.3W
E. 30/1030Z TO 30/1530Z
F. SFC TO 20,000 FT
Air Force WC-130J into the storm:
FLIGHT SEVEN - TEAL 75
A. 31/1130Z,1730Z ... Scheduled to first arrive at the center at 7:30am EDT
B. AFXXX 2605A DORIAN
C. 31/0945Z... Take off at 5:45am EDT
D. 26.3N 73.4W
E. 31/1100Z TO 31/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
From NHC Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
How to read: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutreconpod.shtml
The good news, for recon into the storm, 3 hourly fixes, rather than 6 hourly fixes, start at 5:30pm EDT Saturday so there will be less gaps in-between recon, especially when a plane isn't able to do a mission.
But the 2am EDT and 5am EDT advisories will not have recon data. Nor will any data from the G-IV mission be in the GFS, and any other models it might happen to go into.
The first advisory that will have recon data again should be the intermediate one at 8am EDT. The next scheduled complete advisory, where tracks updates take place, will be at 11am EDT, unless they put out a special one for some reason. That might be when some of the G-IV data starts being in the models again, if the plane goes out there.
I mention all of this because there is going to be some built-in uncertainty. Everyone should remain vigilant in the Southeast U.S. (and obviously the Bahamas where impacts are more certain in parts of the northern Bahamas) |