| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents Tropical storm warning has been issued for part of the Mexican coast. Since they needed to issue that before it was defined well enough, this is a potential tropical cyclone. Meanwhile, in the east Atlantic, Invest 91L a few hundred miles west of Cape Verde is likely to become a tropical depression later today according to the NHC. (90% in Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5) Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Overnight scatterometer wind data and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the west-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better defined, but still lacks a well-defined center. However, the scatterometer indicated surface winds of 30-33 kt in the northwestern quadrant and observations from Buoy 42002 north of the center have been indicating wind speeds of 25-27 kt at 4-meter elevation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on Potential Cyclone Seven. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 260/06 kt. The general motion of the broad low is expected to be westward, being steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the southern United States. It is possible, however, that an apparent west-northwestward motion could occur if the low-level center redevelops farther north into the deep convection. The NHC forecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the consensus model TVCN. Some slight strengthening is forecast during then next 36-48 hours before the low moves inland over northeastern Mexico. However, the broad and large circulation should prevent any rapid intensification from occurring. The official intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN consensus model. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 23.5N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 24.3N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 94.3W ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from La Pesca northward to Barra El Mezquital. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 94.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west or west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today and become a tropical storm by tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity has been steadily increasing in coverage and organization this morning, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Wednesday evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches will be likely over portions of northeastern Mexico, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |