| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Euro and GFS still show threat to Bermuda after passing just north of Leeward Islands. Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Storm specific models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/ Satellite: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL102019 https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=13461.25&y=7260.125 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL102019 http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?type=Animation&numframes=12&mapcolor=white&lat=17&lon=-58 Wide views: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=13&length=12 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-13-24-0-100-1 Tropical Storm Jerry Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 510 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. $$ Forecaster Pasch Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 50.5W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten. Meteo-France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... St. Maarten St. Martin St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Further watches could be issued this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 50.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions of northern Leeward Islands late on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |