Re: NHC Discussion
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/30/2019, 8:39 pm
I don't know why the Euro ensemble members happen to be more off than the GFS
ensemble members.

Model error:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2019&storm=13&display=model_error&type=table&run=latest&error_type=average&interval=24&hour=120&position_unit=nm&intensity_unit=kts&show_cases=1&heat_map=1&hide_zero_hour=&model_toggle_option=&show_bearing=&trend=&show_trend_text=&zero_hour_within=10&intensity_option=&hide_model_names=&extra_info=2&sorting_error_method=&sorting_error_hour=120&sorting_error_option=

It could just be the occasion where the GFS ensemble happens to be a bit better.

For the main Euro and GFS though they are pretty much the same among the available data:


(Number of cases in parenthesis. GFS has more because Euro is only available twice a
day and the Euro is not available while the storm is an invest.)

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2019&storm=13&display=model_error&run=latest&error_type=average&show_cases=1&model_toggle_option=1&toggled_models=AC00,AEMN,AVNO,ECME,ECMO

I would normally say that for storms like this out in the middle of nowhere for awhile, I
think a lack of obs is why in general they would normally be more off, the both of them.

For this storm though, we do actually have some recon data. I don't know what data gets
fed into the GFS that the Euro might not get though. Recon data may include not only
something like sondes but maybe even radar data too. I'm not sure. If so, and the Euro
doesn't get it, then it might have an advantage.

I don't really know how the GFS and Euro ensembles differ. Conditions are tweaked as
far as I understand between members. Is it always the same? Are the Euro members
tweaked more? I just don't know.
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11am AST Monday: 105mph; Hurricane and tropical storm warnings issued in Azores for Lorenzo - Chris in Tampa, 9/30/2019, 12:01 pm
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