Re: New tropical cyclone in Gulf of Mexico for Halloween?
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/24/2019, 5:51 pm
The last one had a front involved too, though it lasted long enough as a tropical entity that it got a name. The NHC is talking about this, Invest 97L, becoming a depression, maybe not lasting long enough to get a name. If it does though, it would be Olga.

With a large system like this the impacts will extend well away from the center. The last one was like that too. Not only surge, but rain and tornadoes.





"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located over the Bay of
Campeche. However, recent satellite data indicate that the
circulation is elongated and not well defined. This system
could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with
a cold front by late Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force
winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Cangialosi"

From Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5





GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850



Satellite:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=13&length=12

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=3380&y=6040

http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?type=Animation&numframes=10&width=600&height=600&zoom=1&mapcolor=white&lat=24&lon=-92&sat_type=automatic




Recon scheduled for tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday, if needed:


NOUS42 KNHC 241541
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 24 OCTOBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z OCTOBER 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-149

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 25/1800Z                   A. 26/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0217A CYCLONE
       C. 25/1600Z                   C. 26/1000Z
       D. 22.5N 94.5W                D. 23.5N 93.0W
       E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2230Z       E. 26/1130Z TO 26/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


From NHC Recon Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
71
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New tropical cyclone in Gulf of Mexico for Halloween? - AlligatorPointer, 10/23/2019, 12:24 pm
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