Re: Pablo forms near Azores
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/26/2019, 9:49 pm
I only see something from several weeks before Dorian, on August 8th:
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-increases-chance-for-above-normal-hurricane-season
I don't know of a better way to handle really short lived storms, especially storms that you know are going to be very short lived. Require it to be around for a certain number of hours? Then what if it is near land? Wait to name it even if it has the intensity? Naming now, in the satellite era, definitely isn't the same before the satellite era. And with more tools available, such as various satellite data available more often, things might get named more often now than even a decade ago. It does make it seemingly impossible to determine if there are more, less or about the same, number of storms over the decades. I just want them to be consistent. But I guess that means name it when you think it meets the current criteria. Just because a decade or so ago you didn't have enough tools to name it then, and you do now, doesn't mean not name it. Things will be handled consistently now and in the future, but it won't be consistent with back then. I don't think they could start naming things even quicker in the future, so things from now on can be compared with each other. But it will be decades before we can determine any trends. They can only look back so much to determine what if anything they missed in prior decades. They probably simply didn't have good enough data at the time so they don't know if they should have named something that they might have missed.
Pablo has been interesting. From the NHC discussions...
45mph at 5pm AST Friday: "The cloud pattern consists of an eye-type feature surrounded by a ring of deep convection."
45mph at 11pm AST Friday: "Pablo continues to exhibit a tight circulation with an occasional eye feature evident in satellite images, which is why the system is classified a tropical storm."
45mph at 5am AST Saturday: "Pablo remains a small cyclone, and recently the eye-like feature that was noted in earlier satellite images is no longer evident."
50mph at 11am AST Saturday: "The small cyclone is maintaining an area of banded convection near the center, and there have been occasional appearances of an eye-like feature."
60mph at 5pm AST Saturday: "Pablo has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with a small eye becoming somewhat better defined."
I'm not so sure that one isn't so small that they can't get a good read on the intensity from satellite.
But it does look odd. A little storm in a big non-tropical low. |
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Chris in Tampa,
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