Re: TS Bertha ... That was quick.
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 5/27/2020, 9:01 am
I had just turned off my computer and then saw it on the news.
Jim emailed out his predictions on May 20th to subscribers and I'm not sure but this might be close enough to number 18. I was going to talk about the predictions on June 1st, but this season is off to a quick start. Not even going to get a plane into this one. Though radar will do. I really hope this pace isn't something we see continue. The pandemic will influence people evacuating for storms that pose a risk and it will really complicate things.
NHC:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Tropical storm warning issued for the 45mph storm. (as of 8:30am EDT Wednesday special advisory)
Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents
Forecast to move onshore in the coming hours.
Tropical Storm Bertha Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020
The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking over the
past day or so has quickly become better organized this morning.
The circulation has become better defined and the center has
reformed beneath the area of deep convection just offshore of the
coast of South Carolina. Recent NWS Doppler radar data from
Charleston and buoy data indicates that the system is producing
tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Storm Bertha. The system will be moving
inland very shortly and little, if any, additional strengthening is
expected. Once inland, the small tropical cyclone should weaken
rapidly and dissipated over central North Carolina on Thursday.
There is very little continuity on the initial motion since the
center has only recently formed. The best estimate of the initial
motion is 320/8 kt. The system should continue to move generally
northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge located
over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models.
Key Messages:
1. Bertha is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
eastern and central South Carolina, west-central to far
southeastern North Carolina, and southwest Virginia. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
2. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm winds to portions of
the South Carolina coast within the warning area in the next few
hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1230Z 32.7N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 33.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0600Z 35.8N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020
1230 UTC WED MAY 27 2020
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 79.4W AT 27/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 79.4W AT 27/1230Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 79.6W
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 33.2N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.8N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 79.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN |
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91L - 20/20 over 2/5 days -
cypresstx,
5/26/2020, 4:07 pm Post A Reply
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