Re: Gulf system potential for July 24th weekend ??
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/19/2020, 9:39 am
As of 2am EDT Sunday, the NHC started mentioning it in the Atlantic outlook.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave located over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters of
the southwestern Atlantic is expected to move west-northwestward
over the next several days and enter the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by late Tuesday, and then move across the central Gulf on
Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. This
disturbance is currently producing disorganized shower activity,
but environmental conditions are expected to become at least
marginally conducive for development by Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Caribbean satellite view:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=car&band=13&length=12
NASA satellite imagery:
http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?lat=20&lon=-71
I haven't looked at the previous models, but as of the 6Z GFS and 0Z Euro this morning, Sunday, it's hard to see it in some of the model imagery. You can see it a little in forecast vorticity imagery.
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=z850_vort
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=uv850_vort
Using that to see where it might go, toward the NW or western Gulf.
Looking at GFS ensemble members, not much to see there tracked in terms of lows:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs
A little more in Canadian ensemble members:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs
The way you use those last two are the red numbers are lows. They are the pressure. 95 would be 995mb. 05 would be 1005mb. If you had a current storm the numbers would be very close together. Then as you went further in time the numbers would show where it tracks the low for each ensemble member. If they go all over the place, less confidence. A small change could have a greater impact on where it eventually goes. If they all took the same path pretty much, more confidence. There's not that many lows right now tracked in it so at the moment, not many ensemble members develop it.
I chose vorticity for the first links because surface model imagery doesn't show much of anything on them as of posting. (like an "L" for a low)
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850
So right now, very little development is shown. |
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