| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents It could pass near Bermuda, so it should be watched, but Twitter is having fun with that one. GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 At a glance, Teddy looks like a hurricane in conventional infrared satellite imagery. Two hooking convective bands are rotating around the center, and cold convective tops are becoming more symmetric within the circulation. Objective intensity estimates have still struggled to increase for some reason, but a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing Teddy's intensity to 60 kt. Overall, the environment looks generally conducive for strengthening. The main limiting factors would be moderate southwesterly shear in 2-3 days, paired with a drier environment with mid-level relative humidity dropping from 55-60 percent to about 40 percent in 3 days. The updated NHC intensity forecast has not been changed significantly from the previous prediction mainly to ensure continuity. Nearly all of the intensity models are below this forecast, and downward intensity adjustments could be required in later forecasts if Teddy doesn't show sure signs of significant intensification. Teddy has turned toward the northwest and slowed down a bit with an initial motion of 305/8 kt. A mid-tropospheric high pressure area is expected to be nearly stationary over the central Atlantic for the entire forecast period, which is likely to keep Teddy on a constant northwestward heading with only small fluctuations in forward speed. If I was to look for any outlier among the tightly clustered track guidance, it would be the ECMWF, which is slightly off to the west of the main pack of models. The NHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the TVCA multi-model consensus aid in deference to the ECMWF, and it's fairly close to the latest HCCA solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.0N 48.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...TEDDY BEARS WATCHING... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 48.3W ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 48.3 West. Teddy is now moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Teddy is expected to become a hurricane overnight. Teddy could then be near major hurricane strength in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |