| A lot of uncertainty with that part of the track. Forecast to be a lot weaker then, at least as of the current forecast. We still don't know what kind of impacts there will be in Bermuda while it remains a major hurricane. Rip current threat well away from the storm, from South America to east coast of U.S. eventually. Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 After a significant strengthening episode this afternoon, Teddy is maintaining Category Four intensity. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission into the hurricane this evening indicate that the maximum winds remain near 120 kt. Since Teddy should remain in a low-shear environment for the next day or so, additional strengthening could occur on Friday. An upper-level cyclone seen in water vapor images to the southeast of Bermuda and the cool wake of previous Hurricane Paulette could impede strengthening in a couple of days. However, Teddy is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next 72 hours, including the time it passes closest to Bermuda. Some fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacements are possible during that period. The hurricane has continued to move northwestward, or around 315/10 kt. Teddy should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high during the next 2-3 days, and then turn northward around days 3-4 while moving through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Around the end of the forecast period, Teddy will probably interact with a deep mid-tropospheric cyclone in the vicinity of Nova Scotia. This interaction will probably cause Teddy to bend somewhat toward the left around day 5, but there is significant uncertainty in the details of the track at that forecast time range. It is also possible that the system will be losing tropical characteristics by the end of the period, but this remains to be seen. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing. 2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.9N 54.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 22.1N 55.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 23.8N 57.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 25.6N 58.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 27.4N 60.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 29.0N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 36.9N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 44.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 54.7W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 54.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible through Friday, with a weakening trend likely to begin this weekend. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |