| I hope Canada is getting ready for this. And people shouldn't be swimming along the East Coast of the U.S. either right now due to rip currents. Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al202020 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL202020 Wide satellite view of Canada: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=can&band=13&length=24 To get a sense of how large it is right now. Radar for later: https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 Teddy is gradually losing tropical characteristics with weaker deep convection near the center and more convective asymmetry. The initial wind speed is kept at 80 kt, assuming any decrease in organization has been offset by the doubling of the forward speed since the last advisory. Note that Dvorak estimates are likely to underestimate the true maximum winds in this extratropical transition situation. The hurricane is now moving quickly northward as a mid-latitude trough picks up the cyclone. All of the guidance show Teddy strengthening overnight due to a baroclinic energy infusion from this trough and increased instability from the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic. Afterward, Teddy should lose its baroclinic forcing and move over cooler water late Tuesday, causing weakening while it accelerates to the north-northeast across eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland before dissipating in 3-4 days. No significant changes were made to the track forecast except for a westward shift beyond 48 hours. While there is some uncertainty about the exact status of Teddy near Nova Scotia, since much of the model guidance keeps the cyclone with a warm core and some convection, it doesn't change the hazards much with significant chances of high winds, heavy rain, storm surge and destructive waves for the south coast of Nova Scotia. Teddy's size will likely double during the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned trough. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast United States. Please see products from your local office for more information about marine hazards, including extremely dangerous rip currents expected over much of the western Atlantic beaches. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 33.2N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 39.5N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 42.2N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/0600Z 50.5N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1800Z 54.5N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...TEDDY ABOUT TO GET LARGER AND STRONGER NORTH OF BERMUDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 62.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence * Magdalen Islands * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is expected tonight followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone before reaching Nova Scotia. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-conditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |