| It's post-tropical now, but remains powerful. I imagine there's going to be a lot of trees down and power outages in the areas of Canada impacted. And along the coast, really powerful waves. It's so large. Tweets from earlier today: Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL202020 https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al202020 Satellite view of Canada: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=can&band=13&length=24 Radar: https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 42A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST... ...DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.9N 64.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 64.2 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 18 mph (29 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although further weakening is likely tonight and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. A weather station at Brier Island recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h), and a gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). Teddy is an extremely large post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540 miles (870 km). Buoy 44150, located about 60 n mi north of the center, recently reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area now. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts Earlier 5pm Tuesday NHC Discussion: Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 Teddy is a very impressive cyclone on satellite images this afternoon, even from full-disk images. The hurricane's circulation is over 1000 miles wide, with an enormous distinct comma shape and frontal features especially in the eastern semicircle. As far as what to call the system convection has actually deepened near the center during the past several hours, and an AMSR pass around 1700 UTC showed that the system still had a low-level eye feature. For that reason and for simplicity's sake, the system will remain a hurricane on this advisory, although it is obviously a hybrid low with many characteristics of a non-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is lowered to 80 kt, assuming the filling trend reported by the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission continued. The wind radii are expanded based on ASCAT data, with tropical-storm-force winds over eastern Nova Scotia already. The hurricane is forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone later tonight or early tomorrow due to the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream likely weakening any central convection. Teddy should decay below hurricane-strength before reaching Nova Scotia and steadily weaken as it moves over the even colder waters in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The new intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and is closest to the GFS model. Teddy is moving northward now and should turn north-northeastward tomorrow ahead of the next trough in the mid-latitudes. This will take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days, with the cyclone likely being absorbed into a larger extratropical cyclone west of Greenland in 2-3 days. There are no significant changes to report, though there has been a slight westward shift of the track near Newfoundland. The hazards from Teddy are extending at quite a distance from the center of this hurricane. In addition to the 500-mile wind radii in the northeastern quadrant, Canadian buoy 44150 has recently reported 42 ft (13 m) significant wave heights, with the buoy still about 90 n mi from the center. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 41.1N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 43.1N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/1800Z 47.0N 60.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0600Z 51.5N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1800Z 56.5N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |