Re: Delta Now A Cat. 4
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/6/2020, 4:40 pm
I think that is because it is interpolated 6 hours and the storm has just strengthened so much. I don't know exactly how it works. I think they take the actual version of the late cycle model that was available now, but was actually initialized as of 6 hours ago, and try applying the current intensity as the baseline somehow. (something like that, not exactly sure) They won't have the current run initialized as of now until later.
I am linking to a specific run below. Link doesn't update:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2020&storm=26&display=wind_diagram&run=2020100618
This link does update:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2020&storm=26&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1
The late cycle model in question is:
COTC
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model)
The early cycle version is:
COTI
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model) (Interpolated 06 hours)
The version of the model that was initialized at 12Z Tuesday, and available by 18Z, initialized at 40 knots (46mph) and peaked at 130 knots (150mph).
The early cycle version initialized and available around 18Z, which uses that above and somehow applies the current intensity, or something near it and like that, has 120 knots (138mph) as the initialization intensity and peaks at 193 knots (222mph).
The difference between 40 knots and 130 knots is 90 knots.
The difference between 120 knots and 193 knots is 73 knots.
So it's not quite as simple as adding 90 knots to every position. But I think that is how that model's interpolated version looks so insane.
Forecasters want available a late cycle model with more current conditions applied, or however that works, to be available now and not have to wait hours more for the next run of the model to be done. (if it's a model that comes out every 6 hours, some come out only every 12 hours)
For the graphical version of that model I could only find the 6Z as of posting.
Closeup of 10m winds:
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc?&spg=&hend=120&sid=26L&scl=3&hend=120&sid=26L&scl=3&sec=1&var=wind-sfc&tau=90&zm=0
Closeup of sea level pressure:
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc?&spg=&hend=120&sid=26L&scl=3&hend=120&sid=26L&scl=3&sec=1&tau=90&var=slp-sfc&zm=0
Again, only see the 6Z version, not 12Z version. Not sure if that means anything or it is just late on that site.
Calendar for that model with runs available:
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc
That is NRL's site, and I think that is the model we are talking about, so I don't know why it isn't there for that specific run. Will be interested to see if it appears later. I don't usually look at that model. Not for any specific reason, just don't know much of anything about it. |
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Delta Now A Cat. 4 -
jachba,
10/6/2020, 1:55 pm Post A Reply
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