T.D. Two becomes Tropical Storm Bill
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 6/14/2021, 11:47 pm
Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents
Forecast to become post-tropical on approach to Newfoundland.
Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 14 2021
Deep convection has increased in a cluster to the northeast of the
estimated center. Scatterometer measurements showed a couple of
40-41 kt vectors over the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. On
this basis, the estimated intensity is increased to 40 kt, which
makes this the second tropical storm of the season, albeit a rather
high-latitude one. The system is in an environment of fairly
strong southwesterly shear, but the diffluent upper-level flow has
apparently contributed to some strengthening in a seemingly hostile
environment. Some additional short-term strengthening could occur
but by 36 hours, the cyclone should merge with a baroclinic zone
while approaching Newfoundland and become extratropical. This
transition is also shown by the FSU cyclone phase analyses of the
GFS model fields.
Bill is moving fairly swiftly northeastward, or 055/20 kt. The
track forecast appears to be straightforward. The flow ahead of a
large mid-tropospheric trough near the United States east coast
should accelerate the system northeastward for the next day or two,
and until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar
to the previous one and not far from the model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 36.7N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 38.9N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 42.6N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 46.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch |
13
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