| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite floater: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL052021#homePageLink Barbados radar: https://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_Radar_Local_Resp.php "As stated in previous discussions, this is a low confidence track forecast given the large spread in the models." "Like the track forecast, there is a huge model spread with solutions ranging from dissipation in the Caribbean to a category 3 hurricane. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast generally keeps the storm steady in strength from 24 to 120 h, and it remains on the low side of the model guidance." Things remain highly uncertain and it's no longer long or mid term. I like to pay attention to the NHC's discussions very closely and I think the above parts very important. I wish everybody read them more. Even some of the meteorologists I saw on TV yesterday around here were not accurately portraying, in my opinion, why the NHC kept the storm around the same speed along much of the track. It's not that they think it won't be a hurricane, it's that there is too much uncertainty to know the likelihood of whether it will be or not and that is a very important difference. Aside from Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba should be preparing for a hurricane in case it is one. Caymans and maybe Bahamas should be keeping a close eye on it too. There's just way too much uncertainty right now. I really wish they had sent in recon sooner. I am kind of disappointed they didn't. We really need to understand the structure of the storm right now. Recon is on the way: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/ But it's already at Barbados. If the storm is actually as organized as it may seem from radar and satellite, it might already be stronger. As for what it does after the Carib, that's just as unclear still. Whether people are in the cone or not, they need to pay attention to it, especially if it is able to strengthen like some of the models suggest. We don't usually have this level of uncertainty in the track. Intensity can sometimes be like this, and usually is to at least some extent, but this is unusual for the track. But in the meantime, the Lesser Antilles are dealing with rainfall that could lead to "isolated flash flooding and mudslides". 10 inches right now be called for today in parts of that region and later on calling for isolated amounts of 12 inches in parts of the Greater Antilles over Saturday and Sunday. Depending on its speed, we'll have to see what kind of storm totals we might see. Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Elsa appears to be slowly gaining strength as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Deep convection has been increasing, and accordingly, the latest Dvorak estimates have nudged upward. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, but some of the estimates are a little higher. Radar data from Barbados indicate that a small inner core could be forming, and it seems likely that the center will pass very near or over the island later this morning. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours, and the data collected by the plane should provide a better estimate of Elsa's intensity and structure. The tropical storm is moving quickly to the west-northwest at about 24 kt. A subtropical ridge should continue to steer Elsa briskly to the west-northwest during the next day or two, taking the storm across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the north is expected toward a weakness in the ridge. There has not been much change in the latest model runs with the GFS and UKMET models on the left side of the guidance and the ECMWF still on the right side. The spread in the ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF is very large and range from tracks across or east of the Bahamas to the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track forecast continues to hold steady and lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. As stated in previous discussions, this is a low confidence track forecast given the large spread in the models. In the short term, while Elsa moves across the warm Caribbean waters, some additional strengthening seems likely. However, the fast forward speed of the storm and associated mid-level wind shear should prevent significant intensification. Since the new forecast is a little higher than the previous one and shows peak winds just below hurricane force on Saturday near Haiti, tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti and a hurricane watch is now in effect for the southern portion of Haiti out of abundance of caution. The degree of land interaction with the mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba will be a big factor in the future strength of Elsa at days 4 and 5. Like the track forecast, there is a huge model spread with solutions ranging from dissipation in the Caribbean to a category 3 hurricane. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast generally keeps the storm steady in strength from 24 to 120 h, and it remains on the low side of the model guidance. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than- normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 12.7N 58.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND IS VERY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 58.6W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire coast of Haiti, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern portion of the country from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * Entire coast of Haiti A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 58.6 West. Elsa is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by little change in strength. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas and possible in the watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern Haiti. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday night or early Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg |