| This is the one nearest to the islands. (first one talked about below) Invest 93L is the one east of it. (second one below) Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have diminished this morning. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the west-southwest or west at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Brown From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 Recon is scheduled for 94L on Tuesday. NOUS42 KNHC 081705 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0105 PM EDT SUN 08 AUGUST 2021 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUGUST 2021 TCPOD NUMBER.....21-069 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS) FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 A. 10/1300Z B. NOAA2 01DDA INVEST C. 10/0830Z D. 16.5N 63.5W E. 10/1230Z TO 10/1630Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 10/2330Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. From Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php NHC surface forecasts indicate a possible tropical cyclone in 72 hours: 24hr: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW_sm3.gif 48hr: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW_sm3.gif 72hr: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif From "Surface Forecasts": https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/ Satellite: Invest 94L is on the left and 93L on the right in some of these images. Atlantic: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=13&length=24 Storm centered floater: http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al942021 https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center=13.1,-53.3&zoom=6×pan=-6h&products=globalwv.-100,global1kmvis.-100,globalir.-100,globalir-bd.-100,globalir-funk.-100,globalir-ott.-100,globalir-nhc.-100,globalwv-grad.-100,globalvis.-100,globalir-avn.65&timeproduct=globalir-avn https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband13&lat=14&lon=-55&type=Animation&numframes=15&width=600&height=400&zoom=2&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=white&palette=ir2.pal Global models: GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 It's still long term for the Contiguous U.S. Storm specific models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/ |