Invest 95L, which is forecast to reach the Leeward Islands over the weekend, has a high chance of development
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/12/2021, 8:48 pm
The GFS has had various forecasts on this one. In the past several days it was hard to tell at times which particular thing the GFS was developing. At times it developed something and at times it didn't. It was in the long range and all I take from something like that is the likelihood of increased activity, which is expected given we are a little less than a month from the statistical peak of the season. (September 10th)
At one point a few days ago the GFS in the longer range had something hitting Texas. (not sure if that was 95L or not) One run ago it was at the GA/SC border and the most recent run at 18Z it seems to be hitting Bermuda.
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn
It's too soon to know where it will ultimately go, but it needs to be watched. Fred's first though, and at the moment storms are firing closer to Fred's center.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located about 240 miles southeast of southern
Andros Island, Bahamas.
1. A small low pressure system located about 1100 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity primarily west of the center. However, environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the weekend. The system is forecast to move generally westward at
about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic, reaching portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Stewart/Papin
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 |
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Invest 95L, which is forecast to reach the Leeward Islands over the weekend, has a high chance of development - Chris in Tampa, 8/12/2021, 8:48 pm Post A Reply
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