| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents Over the next few days it is currently forecast to make a slow clockwise turn around Bermuda. Satellite: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al082021 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL082021 Radar from Bermuda: http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp GFS vorticity: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=z850_vort Euro vorticity: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=uv850_vort Storm specific models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2021&storm=08 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 A small well-defined low pressure system located just east-northeast of Bermuda has produced persistent deep convection since this morning. Radar imagery from Bermuda along with geostationary and polar orbiting microwave satellite data show that the convection is sufficiently well organized to meet the definition for a tropical cyclone. Therefore advisories have been started on Tropical Depression Eight. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on believable winds near that value in a pair of recent ASCAT overpasses. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were a little higher, so this estimate could be slightly conservative. Confidence in the forecast is reasonably high for the next 48 to 72 h. The depression should make a slow clockwise turn around Bermuda, steered by a mid-level ridge currently centered off the coast of the Carolinas. Warm SSTs should provide ample fuel to support at least slight strengthening during this period, despite expected northerly shear, and this is shown by all of the intensity guidance. The NHC forecast is very near the multi-model consensus for both track and intensity through that period. Beyond 72 h, the track and intensity models diverge quickly. The HWRF and COAMPS-TC models rapidly intensify the system to major hurricane strength. A stronger, deeper vortex would likely be steered generally westward through the end of the forecast period, influenced by a deeper-layer steering flow. However, the global models have a much weaker, shallower system which turns northward, and then possibly accelerates northeastward by day 5. As a result, the spread in the track guidance is nearly 800 n mi by day 5, with the GFS and HWRF taking the extreme positions to the northeast and southwest, respectively. The official track forecast takes a middle approach, and is between the various consensus aids at days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly more conservative, and is below the consensus at the end of the period. Significant changes to the forecast may be required in subsequent advisory packages. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 33.2N 62.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 32.4N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 31.5N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 31.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 31.0N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 31.0N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 32.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 33.5N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AND NEARBY WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 62.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 62.7 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the west is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move east and south of Bermuda during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |