Re: 11am EDT Thursday NHC Discussion
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/26/2021, 11:32 am
You can view some of the intensity models they discuss in the NHC discussion here:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2021&storm=09&latestinvest=1&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1
Some of the models they discuss are more intense than what the current forecast indicates. Some are, or have been, much more intense. We'll need to see how the storm develops, but people should be preparing for a rapidly intensifying major hurricane. There isn't a whole lot of time to take a wait and see approach unfortunately. Depending on the path and intensity, there could be a significant amount of people that need to be evacuated in a relatively short amount of time. They can't wait too long to begin since it would take awhile to complete, especially New Orleans if needed.
Important parts of the NHC discussion:
"The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, however
the average NHC track forecast error at day 4 is around 175 miles,
so users should not focus on the details of the long range track
forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system
consolidates and becomes better defined. The NHC track is near the
various consensus model aids and is in best agreement with the GFS
ensemble mean."
"The NHC intensity forecast
brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches
the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the
HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model
guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf
of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence
that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf
this weekend."
Added some of the really important parts in bold.
The entire third paragraph of the NHC discussion about intensity is good to read. |
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