| Earlier on I heard some discussion elsewhere about depending on the strength of the East Pacific storm it could have an impact, but since the NHC hasn't mentioned it I don't know. I guess it would be factored into the models unless the East Pacific storm was stronger or larger than depicted in a particular model. But since the NHC calls for rapid strengthening, it seems unlikely there will be much to stop Ida from strengthening. I think the biggest factors right now are how quickly it comes together and whether the center reforms. I also want to see data from the NOAA G-IV jet sampling the high altitude environment around and ahead of the storm get into the models. From 5pm EDT NHC discussion: "Although the track guidance envelope has tightened this cycle, increasing confidence in the overall forecast scenario, some shifts in the track are still likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined." And also: "Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center, and the average NHC track forecast error at day 3 is around 120 miles." I would like to see what the models are like after data from the G-IV. It departs from Lakeland, Florida at 1:30am EDT Friday morning. Then that data has to get into the models, or at least GFS, not sure about others. People need to be making preparations along the Gulf coast and shouldn't wait for that data of course to make preparations. In a scenario where there would be more time, that's data I like to see in the models. But early on, the storm still isn't very well defined yet. Any center relocation as the storm does get better defined could of course cause a shift in the track. I know a lot of models are clustered around Louisiana, but I really hope people from Texas to parts of Florida are still paying close attention. The cone is based on 5 years of error and doesn't change during a season. About the cone: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml "Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time". That's just the center point only of course, not the wind field or extent of storm surge as this quote again from the NHC says: "Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center, and the average NHC track forecast error at day 3 is around 120 miles." If you were to look at the cone, a part of Mississippi isn't in it. That's just how the cone works. In a scenario where there is more time to look at things, I would like to see how the models handle the storm when it has a well defined center. But again, people in the cone, and in areas outside it, can't wait for these things to prepare. From a weather hobbyists perspective those are things I like to see normally when there is time. But for example, if a hurricane like this were to be heading my way, I would have started to put plywood up today since it might take about two to three days to put it up due to how many windows and doors I have. (and mine is already cut from when we did it in 2004) Then you need time to evacuate too. Even starting this early I might have only been able to do some of it. For people in the path that may want to do something like that, there isn't much time. In the end, many will not have the time and will just need to leave when it comes time. But since it takes so much time to evacuate some areas, especially when a lot of people depend on mass transit, and in an era of COVIV-19, people can't wait until the last minute for things to be clearer. So while we can discuss what may or may not happen with the track, people along the northern Gulf coast should be preparing for a major hurricane coming and just hope something changes. |