| Ida continues with heavy rain across southeastern U.S. right now. Satellite floater: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092021 Radar: https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/index.php?time_mode=update&zoom=6&clon=-86&clat=34&base=0&overlays=1&mping_mode=0&product_type=crefls&product=CREF&qpe_pal_option=0&opacity=1&looping_active=on&num_frames=12&frame_step=200&seconds_step=600 River levels (focused on LA, but you can adjust the map): https://water.weather.gov/ahps/region_forecast.php?state=la Tides (still elevated): https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Ida.html Invest 90L is the first thing in the outlook. (just off the coast of Africa) Second thing is about a low pressure area that could form in SW Carib. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ida, located inland over western Mississippi, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Kate, located over the central tropical Atlantic. 1. Satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that an area of low pressure has formed over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic in association with a tropical wave that recently moved off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southern Caribbean Sea by midweek. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for some slow development by the end of the week, as long as the system remains over water. This system is expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the western Caribbean Sea near the east coast of Central America. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Reinhart From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 It's too early to know where it will go. As of the latest runs as of posting, GFS shows a threat to Azores with it and the Euro has it southeast of Bermuda at the end of its 10 day forecast. So it's too early to know whether it will threaten land. (including points further west) But I did want to point out that even if it goes further north in the Atlantic there are land areas that could be impacted. GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Storm specific models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/ Floater: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al902021 Satellite imagery from EUMETSAT: Older viewer: https://eumetview.eumetsat.int/mapviewer/?product=EO:EUM:DAT:MSG:AIRMASS Newer viewer: https://view.eumetsat.int/productviewer/productDetails/EO:EUM:DAT:MSG:AIRMASS For other sites with satellite imagery from that region see my satellite page: http://tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/#meteosat Also has other EUMETSAT satellite imagery than the Airmass one above. Kate formed today in the Atlantic. (from T.D. Ten) It's moving northward overall in the Atlantic and no threat to land in the next 5 days. Floater: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL102021 Kind of in the middle of the wide view image here in the Atlantic: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=13&length=24 Tropical depression eleven formed, became Julian and became post-tropical over the weekend in the Atlantic. In the East Pacific, Nora has dissipated. From key messages in last NHC discussion on it at 3am MDT today: "Heavy rain associated with Nora's remnants is expected across the states of Sinaloa and Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall from the remnants of Nora is also likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies beginning Wednesday, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region." Satellite imagery for Mexico: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=mex&band=13&length=24 And finally, the NHC is also monitoring an area in the SW Caribbean that has a 20% chance of development over 5 days. Since it is currently hard to pick up on some of the models, and I hope it stays that way, here is the vorticity: GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=uv850_vort Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=uv850_vort It's early yet, but something we will need to keep an eye on just in case. A lot of people are going to be without power for awhile in Louisiana so hopefully nothing comes of it. I see LawKat posted about the CMC, so here is that model: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=watl&pkg=z850_vort IR Satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=car&band=13&length=24 Visible satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=car&band=02&length=24 NASA IR: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband13&lat=13&lon=-77&type=Animation&numframes=15&width=600&height=400&zoom=2&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=white&palette=ir2.pal Created from: http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?type=Animation&numframes=15&width=600&height=400&info=band13&zoom=2&palette=&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=white&lat=13&lon=-77&sat_type=automatic Not currently on NHC's surface forecasts as of posting this message: 24hr: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW_sm3.gif 48hr: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW_sm3.gif 72hr: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif From "Surface Forecasts" on this page: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/ Next names on the list: Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml For those that missed it earlier in the year, the Greek alphabet will no longer be used when we run out of names. There is an alternate naming list that you can see here: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/supplemental-list-of-tropical-cyclone-names-raiv I do love this site's satellite imagery (some older computer's might have issues with it): https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ And also this one's: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-halfdiskeastnorth-02-24-0-100-1 A lot of different views you can choose from and you can view long loops. (further down in left column) Jeff Masters and Bob Henson's blog covers all the Atlantic areas at the bottom of their latest blog post: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/new-orleans-levees-hold-against-idas-onslaught-but-hurricane-leaves-major-damage/ Main blog link: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/topic/eye-on-the-storm/ |