| NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Floater soon: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_index.php Graphics haven't been posted on their site quite yet. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 94.5W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River * The lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 94.5 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to approach the coast of northeastern Mexico on Saturday and make landfall there Saturday night. Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected through landfall, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area beginning Saturday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, along the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern portions of the state of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts possible across far south Texas. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by this system is forecast to affect eastern Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become better organized during the last 24 h, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate winds near 30 kt. However, both the aircraft and scatterometer data show that the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. Since the system is likely to develop further and make landfall as a tropical storm in less than 36 h, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with Tropical Storm Warnings being issued for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12. The disturbance is on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and a general northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland over northeastern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. The disturbance is in an environment of light westerly vertical shear, and this should continue until landfall. This should allow continued development until the system reaches the coast, and the official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 40 kt near landfall. It should be noted, though, that the global models do not develop the system significantly before landfall, and if they are correct any development could be slower than currently forecast. The system will weaken after landfall, and by 60 h it is forecast to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area forming over western and northern Texas. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 2. Rains from the system may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico from northern Veracruz into southern Tamaulipas tonight into early Saturday. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rain from this system may move into far south Texas during the day on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |