12:30am EDT Tuesday Special Advisory upgraded storm surge watch in part of Florida Keys to warning; no other changes
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/28/2022, 3:20 am
Key West saw a higher than forecast water rise high tide.

The NHC forecast had been for:

Florida Keys...2-4 ft

When there was a storm surge watch most of the Florida Keys.

The special advisory upgraded it to:

- Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
- Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft



Key West reached 4.27 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW).

"The average of the lower low water height of each tidal day observed over the National Tidal Datum Epoch. For stations with shorter series, comparison of simultaneous observations with a control tide station is made in order to derive the equivalent datum of the National Tidal Datum Epoch."

The water was 2.12 feet above the predicted level.

Direct link to water levels for the Key West station:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8724580

I hope the modeling of the other values the NHC gives for other locations doesn't meet or exceed the high end of the forecast.



I really hope the people that should have evacuated in the path of Ian did so. It's still uncertain where it's going to make landfall, but there is certainty in that it's going to be very bad, perhaps catastrophic in some aspects. (The NHC uses the word "catastrophic for wind because that is from the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale for category 4 and 5; Ian is forecast to make landfall as a 4)



https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1574946639529115649


https://twitter.com/search?q=Key%20West

Tides for Key West:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580
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11pm EDT Tue on Ian: 120mph; 952mb; NNE at 10mph; life-threatening storm surge, catastrophic winds & flooding expected - cypresstx, 9/27/2022, 11:16 pm
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