Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Ian remains a hybrid tropical cyclone with characteristics of an
extratropical low, including a comma-pattern on satellite images
and some frontal features in the outer circulation. The cyclone
continues to have a warm core, however, and all indications are that
it will re-develop strong convection over the center overnight.
Based on Melbourne Doppler radar velocity data of persistent 70-80-
kt winds from 5-10 thousand feet, and earlier sustained winds of
about 60 kt near that band from an observation in New Smyrna Beach,
the initial wind speed is raised to 65 kt. This makes Ian a
hurricane again. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to fly through Ian this evening and will provide a
better intensity estimate.

Ian finally appears to be making more of a turn to the north-
northeast this afternoon. The hurricane should turn to the north
overnight due to the incoming trough diving southward over the
southern United States and then north-northwestward on Saturday
with an increase in forward speed. While the overall synoptic
pattern is similar in all of the models, Ian has been uncooperative
and remains right of the previous track. Thus, the new forecast is
adjusted to the east, and lies east of the model consensus.
Assuming Ian re-develops thunderstorms near the core overnight, it
should take the expected north-northwest turn, but this shouldn't
be considered a confident forecast yet. Because of the
uncertainty, the Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward into
North Carolina to Cape Fear.

The hurricane is moving over the Gulf Stream for the next day or
so, where it has some time for further re-intensification.
Additionally, the trough interaction should provide a baroclinic
energy kick. These factors point to some strengthening before
landfall tomorrow. The new forecast is close to the GFS and
regional hurricane models and is a bit stronger than before. It
should be emphasized that while we don't expect Ian to be a classic
hurricane at landfall, this does not diminish the danger it poses.
Strong winds and storm surge will also extend far from the center
and will begin well before the center arrives.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday
along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina beginning early Friday,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Hurricane conditions are
possible by tonight along the coasts of northeastern Florida,
Georgia, and North Carolina where a Hurricane Watch is in
effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion since
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well before the center
approaches the coast.

3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across
portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern
Florida. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local
significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina is expected through the end of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 29.3N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 30.5N 79.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 32.8N 79.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 35.0N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 01/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...
...TAKING AIM AT THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 79.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet to
Cape Fear.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from Little River Inlet to Cape Fear.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Cape Fear River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from east of Cape Fear to Surf
City, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to Cape Fear
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Vero Beach Florida to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 79.9 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On
the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on
Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian could slightly strengthen before landfall
tomorrow, and is forecast to rapidly weaken over the southeastern
United States late Friday into Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415
miles (665 km). Kennedy Space Center Tower 1 recently reported a
wind gust to 89 mph (145 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft
* Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the
warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread
northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through
Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday,
and in the watch area in North Carolina on Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts.
* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across South Carolina through Friday.
Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible this weekend across portions of northwest North Carolina
and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible across portions
of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible Friday across the
coastal Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, Florida
and Georgia. Swells will increase along the coasts of South Carolina
and North Carolina. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake