Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

...SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORMS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northwestern Bahamas, including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island,
and Bimini.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas, Florida, and along the
southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of Nicole. Additional watches will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 68.5 West. Nicole is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected
later today. A westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast
Tuesday through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move
near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east
coast of Florida by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nicole could be near or at hurricane intensity by Wednesday or
Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern
Bahamas by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima of 6 inches, across the northwestern
Bahamas Tuesday through Thursday.

Heavy rainfall from this system is expected to impact portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States by mid to late week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean has been gradually becoming better
organized. Scatterometer data and buoy observations from last
evening indicated that the system has developed a sufficiently
well-defined center of circulation, with gale-force winds as high as
40 kt occurring in a band that lies between 180-240 n mi to the east
of the center. Moderate to deep convection has also increased a
bit, with TAFB providing a subtropical Hebert-Poteat classification
of ST1.5. Given these data, the system is now being classified as a
subtropical storm.

Since Nicole's center has only recently formed, the initial motion
is a little uncertain, but the best estimate is north-northwestward,
or 330/12 kt. Model guidance indicates that the system should turn
northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward
the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night due to a
mid-level ridge axis poking eastward off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coast. In about 3 days, the high over the southeastern United
States will slide eastward over the Atlantic as a large mid-latitude
trough traverses the country, and Nicole is expected to make a sharp
recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the
vicinity of Florida. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement
on this scenario, and the official NHC track forecast is fairly
close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Some gradual strengthening is anticipated over the next few days,
although Nicole's sprawling nature does not favor fast
intensification, at least not initially. For the first couple of
days of the forecast, the NHC intensity prediction closely follows
the GFS global model solution. Although Nicole is likely to
maintain a large wind field, models suggest that it could make a
transition to a tropical cyclone and develop a smaller inner-core
wind field in about 2 to 3 days, and at that point more significant
intensification is possible. For now, the NHC intensity forecast
brings Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it
moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of
Florida, which is in line with the HCCA consensus aid. It's not out
of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially
given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas. It
should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole's ultimate
intensity, the storm's large size will likely cause significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the
United States during much of the upcoming week.

Key Messages:

1. Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of its
exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf
and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the
upcoming week.

2. Nicole could be at or near hurricane strength when it moves
near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for a dangerous
storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to a portion of
those areas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas, and additional watches could be required for
portions of the Bahamas and the coast of Florida later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 25.5N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 27.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 28.2N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 27.6N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 09/1800Z 26.8N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 29.2N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 32.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg