Re: 4pm EST Tuesday: 27.5N 73.7W, W at 10 mph, 990mb, 65mph - Nicole expected to become a hurricane Wednesday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 11/8/2022, 6:17 pm
I'm amazed at how large the wind field is, like when you compare it to Florida.

It's not a perfect indicator, but the simple calculation of the surge destruction potential is 5.1 on a scale of 6 right now:
https://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2022&storm=17&display=best_track
Right hand corner at the bottom of that page for latest that is a calculation the model system does based on simple wind field details from the NHC's best track system. It is kind of misleading because it's referring more to the amount of water in motion over a large area, not all right at the core. Also, the wind field will change some before landfall. (though even if it were to contract, once the water builds up because of a larger wind field earlier on some of that additional water would likely still make it to the coast) It's just that the impact will be felt over a large area, like Sandy. The NHC doesn't forecast surge as high as that right now, but I just use that as a comparison because it was felt over a large area because it was a large storm. Usually people well away from the center think they're fine on surge, but in this case, it will be felt over a much larger area compared to other storms. People really need to pay attention to this storm in the area it is forecast to impact. I haven't followed closely but it will be a more significant storm obviously than the wind category alone indicates. That's why the surge information was removed from Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale and it's now only a wind scale, with wind in the name. Surge is more complex and varies based on various factors.



And just a final update on my grandmother who is 100. She's in hospice care while inpatient at a hospital. At least one or more family members or friends are staying with her 24/7, though she's been unresponsive since last night. They're keeping her comfortable and she'll pass on at anytime to perhaps a few days.
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4pm EST Tuesday: 27.5N 73.7W, W at 10 mph, 990mb, 65mph - Nicole expected to become a hurricane Wednesday - cypresstx, 11/8/2022, 4:19 pm
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