of note, thank you Brian McNoldy
Posted by cypresstx on 11/9/2022, 7:31 am
his site is pretty awesome also, esp infamous, archived radar loops https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/

You can see the NHC wind speed probability product initializes the ensemble at the observed storm size then quickly relaxes it to climatological sizes. Typically works fine, but in huge cases like #Nicole, this underestimates the future tropical storm threat & arrival times.

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1590290215708798976


Say it with me: "the track cone is not an impacts cone".
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1590303464327782400

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4am EST Wednesday: 26.6N 75.7W, WSW at 13 mph, 985mb, 70mph - wind field continues to expand on its northern side - cypresstx, 11/9/2022, 4:15 am
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