BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE BRINGING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS TO
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 77.9 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over
Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and
evening, and move onshore the east coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole's center is then expected
to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia
Thursday and Thursday night, and into the Carolinas Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected this evening, and Nicole is
forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the east coast
of Florida tonight. Nicole is expected to weaken while moving
across Florida and the southeastern United States Thursday through
Friday, and it is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday afternoon.

Nicole is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 485 miles (780 km) from the center especially to the
north of the center. A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing Site at
Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island has
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind
gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). A private weather station on Elbow Cay,
just east of Great Abaco Island, recently reported sustained winds
of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph (103 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue across
portions of the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical
storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning areas into
Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the west coast of Florida by this evening or tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today
into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward
across portions of the Southeast, eastern Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic,
and New England Thursday into Friday night, where limited flooding
impacts will be possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across eastern
Florida, and Thursday from northeastern Florida into parts of
southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North
Carolina.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

The satellite presentation of Nicole has not changed much since
late this morning. Curved bands of convection wrap around much of
the circulation and there has been a ragged eyewall in radar data
from both the Bahamas and Miami. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 985 mb and
peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt during its final pass
through the center and northwestern portion of the storm as Nicole
made landfall on Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas just
prior to 1700 UTC. Those aircraft data still supported an
intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the initial intensity for
this advisory.

Recent center fixes show that Nicole is moving westward or 270
degrees at 11 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the north of the
cyclone is expected to shift eastward causing Nicole to turn
west-northwestward to northwestward tonight. This motion
should bring the center onshore the coast of southeastern or
east-central Florida overnight, and across the Florida peninsula
Thursday morning. As Nicole passes over north Florida late
Thursday, a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United
States is expected to turn the cyclone or its remnants northward
and then northeastward across inland portions of Georgia and the
Carolinas. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement during
the first 12 to 24 hours, with some increase in spread during the
recurvature portion of the forecast. The updated NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 24 hours,
but is slightly west thereafter to be close to the latest consensus
aids.

Nicole still has about 12 hours in which to strengthen. Given the
slightly improved inner core structure and the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream that Nicole will be traversing, the forecast still
calls for the cyclone to reach hurricane status before reaching the
east coast of Florida. After landfall, weakening should occur as
the center cross the Florida peninsula. Even if the center briefly
emerges over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
re-intensification is not expected. Nicole is forecast to weaken
further over the southeastern United Sates, and then dissipate along
a frontal zone moving into the eastern United States by 60 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm
surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern
Bahamas through this evening, where a Hurricane Warning remains in
effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas into
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along
the west coast of Florida within the warning area this evening or
tonight.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river rises on
the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and extending northward through west central Pennsylvania
into western New York by Friday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 26.5N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.3N 80.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 28.8N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 31.0N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 34.6N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown