Could potentially come close to the Azores. A little early to know how close it might get to them. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 830 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic. 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during the next few days. By Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting potential of tropical transition after that time. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EST Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Papin Special Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks, issued as needed since we're not in hurricane season any longer: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 Atlantic satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16§or=taw Floater: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al992022 GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn Storm specific models: https://hurricanecity.com/models/ Congratulations to Jim on having some of his statistics used in a book: |