Tropical Depression Four forms in the central Atlantic
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/22/2023, 7:36 am
It is forecast to be north of the Caribbean through 5 days:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents

Shear is forecast to take a toll on this one too after it becomes a storm, though after 5 day NHC forecast, the GFS has it strengthening into a hurricane and potentially being near, or impacting, Bermuda. After that, potentially impacting Newfoundland. So it may impact land even if it doesn't move further westward like Bret is doing.

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn

Satellite floater:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL042023

Wide view:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=taw
IR: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=taw&band=13&length=24



I am ready for the first cold front karen. The calendar just said summer started, but I am willing to reject that. Some parts of the Tampa Bay area, inland and to the south, could have a heat index approaching 110 in the coming days. The rain has been nice lately, but humidity is here too. And it's Florida so it's not going anywhere, I can't believe we only now officially got into the summer on the calendar. We get the first cool front here in Tampa usually in late October. That's too many months away.
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Tropical Depression Four forms in the central Atlantic - Chris in Tampa, 6/22/2023, 7:36 am
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