Re: a hurricane season forecast in early January...
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 1/9/2024, 10:05 pm
I haven't visited that person's website, but the article is confusing on what kind of methodology it is, saying visit their website to find out.
https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2024/01/03/an-early-hurricane-heads-up-for-houston-and-texas/
Maybe he looks at 1 to 2 years of prior data and assumes that a storm might take a similar enough so track that 50% of the time another storm will pass through the particular zone during the season? That's just a guess based on that rather poorly written article. Again, I didn't look at the website to see how he arrives at whatever he is arriving at. I just can't take a forecast seriously in January, though I guess it's not based on anything at all other than previous storms, so I guess it doesn't matter when it's made before the season. I guess it's just return rates repackaged in some way and based over a very short period of time. And it's passing through one of his zones in the image I assume, not necessarily crossing the coast. It could be out at sea. I don't know. It just doesn't seem to be very useful. That claimed 81% accuracy seems to be for the entire zone. One zone this year is from the northern Florida Keys to the FL/GA border, being as far east as some of the Bahamas. If the center passed anywhere in that giant region, he would consider it as being accurate. Something needs to be based on more data and over a longer period. Again, maybe I am interpreting it wrong, but it seems too ridiculous to give his website a click. I can draw giant circles or ovals on a map too. |
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