[Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Beryl continues to rapidly strengthen, and has now become a
hurricane. Satellite images show an expanding central dense
overcast feature, and recent microwave images indicate that a
partial eyewall has formed. This intensity estimate is in agreement
with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB of T4.0/65 kt. Beryl is a
compact tropical cyclone, with its tropical-storm-force winds
estimated to extend up to 50 n mi from the center. Both the NOAA
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
Beryl tomorrow, and the data they collect will be very helpful in
assessing the system's structure and intensity.

Beryl continues to wobble around, but the general motion has been
westward at a quick 19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep
the hurricane moving generally westward at only a slightly slower
forward speed for the next couple of days. This motion should take
Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. A
weakness in the ridge could cause Beryl to gain a little more
latitude during the early and middle portions of next week, before
turning back slightly to the left as another ridge builds to the
northwest of Beryl. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and in fairly good agreement with the various consensus
models.

Now that Beryl has developed a compact inner core, it seems likely
that it will continue to intensify quickly since the hurricane will
remain in near ideal environmental conditions during the next day or
two. The NHC intensity forecast is again nudged upward in the short
term, and shows Beryl becoming a dangerous major hurricane prior to
it reaching the Windward Islands. Beyond a couple of days, when
Beryl is moving across the Caribbean, an increase in shear should
end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening toward the end
of the forecast period. The intensity models are coming into better
agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is roughly near
the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge. Hurricane Watch and Warnings are in effect for much
of the Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 10.1N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 10.6N 51.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.3N 55.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.1N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 14.3N 66.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 49.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Tobago

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 49.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A relatively quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected
to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major
hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch areas Sunday night or Monday morning.
Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl
moves through portions of the Windward Islands.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
areas by Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane
warning and watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into
Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.

Showers and thunderstorms well north of Beryl may produce 1 to 4
inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday
night into Tuesday.

Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola
Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Beryl, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi