Area forecast to eventually enter the Gulf has a high chance of development within 7 days
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/22/2024, 6:04 am
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
The models, especially the GFS, has had quite the variety of runs over many days, with final landfall location and strength. It's too early to know much of anything other than there is likely to be a storm this week in the Gulf. At the moment, central to eastern Gulf is the most likely given current runs.
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn
I like to look at the ensemble members for a general idea of the area of the Gulf that should be watching more closely, rather than run to run jumps when it hasn't even formed yet.
GFS ensemble members:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs
Euro ensemble members:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs
It has 0% chance of development as of posting because it says:
"A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few
days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions
of Central America."
So looking at just the main model for both GFS and Euro I don't think is as helpful.
If it forms in the Gulf, it has to go somewhere. Helene is the next name on the list. Name after that is Isaac. There's some areas out in the Atlantic, but this is the focus for now as those areas might have no impact on the Americas. (one might impact the Azores eventually)
Central America satellite:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=cam&band=13&length=24
Recon is possible Monday afternoon.
NOUS42 KNHC 211344
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SAT 21 SEPTEMBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2024
TCPOD NUMBER.....24-113
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
NEAR 17.5N 84.5W FOR 23/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
Masters/Henson blog:
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/topic/eye-on-the-storm/
(as of posting they has a blog post Friday on it) |
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Area forecast to eventually enter the Gulf has a high chance of development within 7 days - Chris in Tampa, 9/22/2024, 6:04 am Post A Reply
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