Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the
circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep
convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the
circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the
recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass
is expected over the system later this morning.

The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The
system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward
during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause
the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected
to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and
this track will bring the system across the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in
the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus
aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and
ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.

The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are
expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next
few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the
next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but
after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The
global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional
hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during
that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of
rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows
the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity
consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies
a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the
exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with
multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban,
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown