Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite imagery this morning suggests that Milton is getting
better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger
and some outer banding forming in the western semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates currently range between 30-45 kt, and
based on this and the increasing organization the initial intensity
is set at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
enroute to investigate Milton.

Milton has turned eastward with the initial motion of 090/4 kt.
Westerly flow on the south side of a shortwave trough over the
northern Gulf of Mexico should steer the storm generally eastward
during the next 36-48 h. After that, a second trough moving over
the northwestern Gulf should cause the storm to turn northeastward
toward the Florida Peninsula at a faster forward speed. While the
track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario,
there remains some spread in both the track and forward speed, so it
is too early to specify which portions of the Florida Peninsula will
get the worst impacts. After crossing Florida, Milton should turn
eastward over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerly flow. The
new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track
and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that
the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles.
Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track.

The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a
small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very
rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable
environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and
dry air entrainment after that time. Third, the proximity of a
frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests
the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at
some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance
continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak
intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to
category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts
Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while
other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly. The new
intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows
Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is
below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the
storm gets stronger. Milton is expected to weaken and start
extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition
completed by 120 h.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.


Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as
early as late today for portions of Florida.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 22.9N 92.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 22.9N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.4N 89.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.5N 87.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 31.0N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Milton is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of
days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast
track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane
tonight, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN