BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON STRENGTHENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.1 West. Milton is
moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a
faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and
become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as
Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Milton continues to intensify. The hurricane's center is embedded
within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense
convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Tail Doppler wind
data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the
circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from
1 to 5 km elevation. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and
that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt.

Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the
hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion
estimate of 100/6 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion
of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also
being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to
mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf. The
numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east
of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence
on Milton will gradually lessen with time. As the mid-level
trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the
next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72
hour time frame. After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn
east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the
southeastern United States. The official track forecast follows
essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but
is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model
consensus guidance. Again it should be noted that the average NHC
track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track.

Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat
content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist
low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly
strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of
days. Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern
Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear. The latest SHIPS
model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in
60-72 hours. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the
hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is
still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in
Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the
coastline.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded
to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-
threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm
Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday.
Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given
by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch