BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 88.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 88.9 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of
the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to
make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the warning area in
Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas
in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue in tropical storm warning area today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday
and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by
Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight. The
pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data
showed a double eyewall structure. More recent microwave images
show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is
completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These eyewall replacement
cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak
winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. Based
on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning.

The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt. A turn to the northeast with
a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough
digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater
Antilles. This motion should take the core of Milton to
west-central Florida Wednesday night. After the hurricane passes
Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a
more zonal steering flow. Little change was made to the track
forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower
while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic.

Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are
likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in vertical wind
shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches
Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an
extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. After
landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now
expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the
Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the
model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models.

Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field
is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida. This is an extremely
life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if
told to do so.

3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas
should be complete by tonight.

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of
Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thursday. This rainfall
brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will
be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi