BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON FORECAST TO RETAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND EXPAND IN
SIZE WHILE IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 88.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended southward along the
east coast of Florida to Port Canaveral.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama
Island, the Abacos, and Bimini.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth
of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,
the Abacos, and Bimini.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 88.4 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida
through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move
east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected,
Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 929 mb
(27.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the
warning areas in Mexico today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area
on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across
the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern
Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter
observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement
overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to
12 nm in diameter. However, it does not appear that the hurricane
weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have
rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction. A dropsonde released
by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an
average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which
equates to an intensity of 130 kt. The latest pressure reported by
the planes is 929 mb.

The recent aircraft fixes show that Milton has turned a bit
leftward and is moving toward the east-northeast (065/8 kt).
Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating
later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. The track guidance
is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that
even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an
average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact
landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it
approaches the coast. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross
Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of
Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24
hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be
enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models,
since these models should have a better handle on a potential
positive trough interaction.

Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other
preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm
surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

2. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.

4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where
coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood
threat.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg