| What's about to happen in Florida is going to be very sad. This storm is moving water to the coast at category 5 intensity longer than was originally forecast. Even after potential weakening, like storms like it, it will have worse surge than whatever it will have weakened to. About where the center crosses the coast and southward, it's going to annihilate the coast. And the wind, that's going to be extremely powerful. You never know when an ERC might take place and the core could expand and spread out those destructive winds even further. From the 10pm CDT Tuesday discussion: Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Although an expected increase in vertical wind shear should cause some weakening, Milton is expected to still be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches shore. Also, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton reaches the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper side of the intensity model guidance. "Although an expected increase in vertical wind shear should cause some weakening" "Also, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton reaches the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening." That's not language you want to hear. "expected increase in vertical wind shear" "should cause some weakening" "extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton reaches the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening" I love the NHC discussions. They add more. They're being pretty clear to me. This is going to be an extremely strong storm in terms of wind at landfall. I like to say never count on shear. This could very well be one of those times. I think the NHC should change the language from "dangerous" to "potentially catastrophic" in the headline. At times they have mentioned it in the public advisory. Current public advisory, with 160mph, has: "Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale." A prior advisory, when it was 165mph, had: "Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale." https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al14/al142024.public.012.shtml I think they need to add that back. And with that, I might get a little bit more sleep before not being anywhere near this thing. https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/index.php?time_mode=update&zoom=7&clon=-83.64&clat=26.45&product_type=crefls&product=CREF&num_frames=12&looping_active=on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/flkeys/large-scale-loop Later, long loop: https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/ |