BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Georgia coast from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah
River.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Yankeetown.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 85.5 West. Milton is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A
turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday
morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western
Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 907 mb
(26.78 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday
and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula
and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida
tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the South Carolina coast on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across
parts of central and southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Milton has been maintaining its strength as a catastrophic category
5 hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite and
Doppler radar images indicate that the major hurricane has a
compact, symmetric, and very powerful inner core. Based on
aircraft data, the minimum pressure has dropped to 907 mb and the
maximum sustained winds remain near 140 kt. The wind field of
Milton is gradually expanding, and the wind radii have been adjusted
based on a combination of the Hurricane Hunter data and ASCAT
passes. There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across
portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of
Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day.

Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid-
to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located
over the Greater Antilles. This motion should generally continue
until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur
late tonight or early Thursday morning. After the hurricane reaches
the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another
trough approaches the system from the west. Milton should exit
Florida and move over the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon and
accelerate eastward after that. The NHC track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles.

The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin
to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some
weakening. However, there is high confidence that Milton will
remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and
maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state. The
cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on
Friday and gradually weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.

Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while
it moves across Florida. Additionally, a large region of tropical
storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back
side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal
boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well
outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and
residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local
emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations
should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one
of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and
you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local
officials.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 85.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Roberts